The general consensus amongst economists and property specialists is that the housing market is yet to reach its price floor. Prices have fallen by 40-50% across the country and are expected to fall by c.60% by the time they are fully unwound. There has been some speculation that the market might recover quite quickly, especially in the cities, with population growth cited as the prime factor to drive such a turnaround. The hope is that Ireland might mirror the reasonably rapid recovery of the mid-1990s Finnish property crash, rather than the stagnation of the Japanese crash from the late 1980s wherein present property prices are still below those twenty years ago. My own view is that the Irish crash will be nearer to Japan’s experience than Finland, with property prices unlikely to rise to peak 2007 prices for at least another ten to fifteen years, and longer for some parts of the country. There are six reasons why. (link to article in Ireland After NAMA)
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