The globalised economy has become more complex (connectivity, interdependence, and speed), and delocalized, with increasing concentration within critical systems. This has made us all more vulnerable to systemic shocks. This paper by David Korowicz provides an overview of the effect of a major pandemic on the operation of complex socio-economic systems using some simple models. It discusses the links between initial pandemic absenteeism and supply-chain contagion, and the evolution and rate of shock propagation. It discusses systemic collapse and the difficulties of re-booting socio-economic systems.
Download the paper (pdf format, 168K)
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One Reply to “Catastrophic Shocks in Complex Socio-Economic Systems—a pandemic perspective”
Apologies – I need to fis this to be read more easily.
I’d suggest that a failure of the financial markets ie government interention is more likely than a pandemic to cause catastrophic change.
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